Strategic Silence, Strategic Ambiguity, and Strategic Loyalty: A Serial Mediation Model of Leadership Effectiveness in the Banking Sector
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Date
2026-04-13
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East African Journal of Business and Economics
Abstract
In volatile and tightly regulated business environments, leadership effectiveness may depend as much on restraint as on expression. While traditional leadership models emphasise clarity and vocal influence, leaders operating in complex sectors such as banking often rely on calibrated silence and flexible communication to navigate uncertainty. This study examines how strategic silence contributes to leadership effectiveness and whether this
relationship unfolds through strategic ambiguity and strategic loyalty. Drawing on dynamic capabilities theory and social exchange theory, the study
employed a cross-sectional survey of managers and supervisory-level employees from selected commercial banks in Eldoret, Kenya. Data were analysed using Hayes’ PROCESS Model 6 with 5,000 bootstrap samples to test a serial mediation framework. The findings show that strategic silence significantly predicts strategic ambiguity (β = .46, p < .001), which in turn strengthens strategic loyalty (β = .41, p < .001). Strategic loyalty exhibits a strong positive effect on leadership effectiveness (β = .52, p < .001). Although strategic silence has a direct positive impact on leadership effectiveness (β = .34, p < .001), this effect reduces but remains significant when mediators are included (β = .15, p < .05), indicating partial mediation. Importantly, the serial indirect pathway from strategic silence to leadership effectiveness through strategic ambiguity and strategic loyalty is significant (β = .09, 95% CI [.04,.16]). These results suggest that intentional silence, when followed by adaptive framing and relational consolidation, enhances leadership effectiveness. The study contributes to leadership scholarship by repositioning silence and ambiguity as strategic capabilities rather than communication deficiencies. Practical implications for leadership development and governance in African financial institutions are discussed.